How Churches Grow: A Platform for Growth

How Churches Grow: A Platform for Growth

by Franklin Dumond, Director of Congregational Ministries

While specific strategies for local church growth must be customized to each church, a few general principles have application in any church location and provide a starting point for discussing growth strategies.

First, outreach must be intentional, not accidental.

On a particular Sunday evening, a first-time guest attended the service. In the course of the evening, this man confessed his desire to become a Christian. That very evening the pastor and his evening crowd were able to share the gospel with him and lead him into a personal commitment to Jesus Christ. That first-time guest had driven past 12 different churches looking for one that had an evening service. Because he found that evening service he became a believer. This accidental outreach happens once in a while in almost every church. It used to be a hallmark of a church’s evangelism. The entire community knew that the church was open and the opportunity to follow Christ was part of every worship experience.

Successful outreach in the 21st century, however, must be intentional. It must be planned, sustained, resourced, and spiritually energized. A young intern made a keen insight as he looked around the church where he was serving. “You can predict when people will be saved around here,” he said in amazement. “Every time we offer our discipleship classes people get saved!”

Second, the power of relationships and the value of invitational witnesses cannot be overstated.

People respond to friends and family they trust. They come to hear the gospel when encouraged to do so by a positive invitation. In many families, however, it has been 2-5 generations since there was a direct family connection to Christ and his church. One very important strategy for growth is Big Day Evangelism when everyone is encouraged to invite friends and family members to share a worship service with them.

Third, when leading an established congregation to new growth, building alongside is much more effective than demolishing what exists.

Changing a church’s culture or preferred way of doing things can take 8-10 years, so invest in the long haul. It is the comers-and-stayers, not the comers-and-goers that make a difference. Because churches by nature are conservative, change can be difficult. It is often much less threatening to offer something new than it is to stop doing something that is already being done.

Fourth, recognize leadership lids and growth ceilings. Limitations exist. One limitation is the leadership skills/gifts/abilities of the leader.

An effective pastor of a multi-staff church with multiple worship services may not be able to lead a single cell congregation where he must be solo and hands-on in leadership style. By the same token, churches reach growth ceilings for a variety of reasons. It may be that the population base is not present or that facilities cannot be secured. As another example, a church that regularly sees large numbers of first-time guests and new members will be more skilled and accomplished at assimilation than the church that counts guests and new members for the year on one hand.

Fifth, will a refocus, restart, or adoption be involved?

This is important since these kinds of growth require transformational growth and radical change. Each can be appropriate at different times in the life cycle of a congregation.

Refocus takes the existing congregation into a new chapter. It occurs most naturally when a congregation is approaching or just past its peak.
Restart generally occurs at the end of a congregation’s life cycle when everything that was is coming to an end. A new beginning occurs with a new direction, new leadership, new programming in a newly remodeled building.

Adoption or merger occurs when one congregation joins another. Two places on the life cycle are the most likely times for this to occur. In the early stages of development, if the newly organized group determines that their dream/vision is not viable, they may keep that dream/vision alive by merging with or being adopted by another group. In the later stages of a church’s existence, a congregation may see adoption by a stronger sister-church as a preferable option to closure. Sometimes this allows them to become a satellite campus of another church.

Sixth, for evangelism to occur, a church must build the basics of evangelism into its very DNA.

The pastor must preach evangelistically. At least 2-3 times in the year the morning message should be nothing more than a simple presentation of the gospel.

The pastor and church leaders must repeatedly explain how to respond to the gospel and must be readily available to explore questions and issues with those who are on a spiritual quest.

The new member’s classes should teach the basics of how to share a personal witness.

The church should regularly share tools with its members so they will be properly resourced to invite and to witness. This could include providing gospel tracts, sample conversation starters, and invite cards. It could also include billboard advertising and saturation mailing campaigns that provide an incentive or secondary reinforcement to encourage congregation members to regularly invite folks to attend with them.
Specific strategies, when customized to the local setting and empowered by the Holy Spirit, will result in church growth.

How Churches Grow: The Comfort Zone and Predicting Growth Potential

How Churches Grow: The Comfort Zone and Predicting Growth Potential

by Franklin Dumond, Director of Congregational Ministries

Since growth in a church results from the style of relationships and ministry programs, most churches will never undergo the transformational change necessary to advance to a new style of relationships and ministry. Small churches do not become large churches simply by continuing to do what small churches do. Small churches only become large churches when they begin to function, program, and relate like large churches.

To function, program, and relate differently, in new ways, can be very difficult. Transformational growth can lead to conflict and drop-out when a church changes from one style into another. Conflict in this transformational process generally comes either from those who do not want to change or from those who want to change rapidly.

For most churches, significant numerical growth is possible without transformational change. For example, the smaller, family church of 35 can become a smaller, family church of 70 or more by simply adopting new family members. (Note: Last week’s ChurchTalk reviewed three types of churches based on size and style of relationships.) Since about half of the churches in the United States are comprised of fewer than 75 people there is room for significant growth by simply including more people in the already existing framework.

Can a church predict its potential for growth? Since most churches function today much as they have in the past, a look at the past can generally predict the future.

A simple tool easily completed by any church can predict the level of growth potential based on the current ministry structure of the church. This tool has been labeled as Comfort Zone Analysis. A few steps are involved in this analysis.

  1. Gather worship attendance averages for each of the previous 10 years. Remember that worship attendance more accurately predicts congregational life than membership rolls. Using a 10-year profile is important. This generally captures a look at two or three cycles of church growth and development. A pastor recently observed, “I’m on my third congregation now.” When he made this observation he was simply describing the turnover rate in many churches. Children grow up and move away. Older folks retire and relocate. Every five years or so most churches will have a substantial turnover in people who attend. By capturing at least two of these cycles it is more likely that the actual personality or style of the congregation is indicated in the attendance averages.
  2. Chart the averages on a simple bar graph with one column for each year. If information is missing for one year just leave that column empty. Average attendance can often be discovered on the annual report forms that churches submit to the denominational office. Other internal sources for attendance data can often be discovered in the annual reports, business meeting records, or church bulletin files.
  3. Identify the lowest annual average then draw a line across the graph just below it. This represents the danger zone for the church. It is difficult or impossible to operate the current ministries of the church if attendance is maintained in the lower range. Often a church finds a new incentive for outreach and growth when this lower limit is reached. Either there is room for new folks to find a place of service or there is a desperate need for new folks to enter to sustain the current ministries.
    Some researchers contend that a church enters a danger zone that is difficult to survive when attendance drops to less than 25.
  4. Identify the highest annual average. It is unlikely that average attendance will exceed this number unless the church undergoes a significant transformation. Most churches only reluctantly pay the price to become something new and different.
  5. Calculate the difference between the current annual average and the highest annual average. This represents the growth potential.

Gary McIntosh uses a similar diagram to describe the floors and lids of church growth. Once the Comfort Zone has been identified, it is easy to see how the upper limit of the current comfort zone could be seen as the lower limit of the next level. This means that if a church of 125 sustains that level for a while it may be possible to make some changes in structure or programming that would allow it to grow into a new kind of church. The addition of a new worship service, for example, sets the stage then for this church to double in attendance.

Dr. McIntosh observes that local churches appear disproportionally grouped at several typical sizes. Averages of 35, 85, 125, and 200 are typical for the small to mid-size churches. He also indicates 400, 800, 1200, 3000, 6000, and 10,000 as typical plateaus for larger churches.

For any size church moving out of its Comfort Zone, intentional steps must be taken to become something other than what they already are.

New Metrics for the New Normal

New Metrics for the New Normal

by Franklin Dumond, Director of Congregational Ministries

Over the years church leaders have used a variety of measurements to define church growth. Traditionally these metrics have centered on average weekly attendance.

Not many years ago churches only measured small group participation by reporting Sunday School attendance. Back then attendance in Sunday School classes often exceeded attendance at worship services.

A shift in emphasis occurred so that by the new millennium worship attendance in most churches greatly exceeded Sunday School attendance.

In the ‘old normal’ it was not uncommon for only 25-50% of worship attenders to also attend Sunday School or other small group ministries.

In pre-pandemic America, the trend toward inconsistent, sporadic attendance accelerated. Not so long ago the active church member might attend three services per week and miss only a few weeks in a year. The frequency of attendance began to decline some time ago but seems to have accelerated in the booming economy. When times were good folks more often found other things to do on weekends.

A further complication that impeded consistent church attendance was the invasion of previously sacred space and time. Although Blue Laws restricting Sunday commerce disappeared generations ago, de-facto Blue Laws remained ingrained in our culture. Not so long ago school events and sporting activities were almost never held on Sunday. Now, Sunday is just another day.

The New Normal generated by the pandemic of 2020 has further restricted consistent attendance. As churches have re-gathered many have discovered that weekly in-person attendance is considerably lower than pre-shutdown. With the threat of contagion looming, many with underlying health conditions or compromised immune systems have chosen to remain absent from weekly gatherings.

A new development during the pandemic also impacts weekly attendance. The explosion of on-line, live-streaming services meant that many churches expanded their weekly participation even when weekly in-person gatherings were not scheduled.

If our old metric of average weekly attendance cannot accurately measure current activity, what metrics will rise to take its place?
Let me offer a few thoughts:

New Metrics for the New Normal
  1. If average in-person attendance remains the standard metric for the local church at the very least we cannot compare averages for 2020 with those for previous years. If in the near future we see some kind of stabilized attendance patterns we may be able to resume evaluating based on those measures with a notable asterisk* to identify 2020 as an outlier year.
  2. If on-line activity is sustained then effective metrics must be used to evaluate it. At the very least the measure should be consistent and at the best, it should actually measure meaningful or sustained rather than fleeting engagement.
    This means that the reliance on the total number of views must be balanced by the reality of length of time spent with the on-line experience or with resulting actions taken by the on-line viewer. For example, some church leaders encourage their folks to sign in with a comment when they view on-line streaming from Facebook. Other leaders choose those platforms that allow a more detailed measure of viewership rather than relying on the raw number of total views.
    On the other hand, relying on the raw number of total views may not be as unrealistic as we assume. I’ve been told that it is common for folks to be distracted, even to be daydreaming or napping, although they are present for in-person worship. Is this much different than a short view on-line?
  3. Even before we began coping with the new normal there was already widespread awareness that metrics other than raw data on weekly attendance were necessary. For example, many churches regularly evaluate how many attendees at worship also participate in a small group setting and/or serve in a ministry setting.
    Many healthy churches will set goals for increasing the level of participation in both these areas.
  4. One metric that will become increasingly important for all sized congregations will be the size of the crowd, the extended congregation. How many people attend at least once in a 6-8 week period? If this group can be identified, then the groundwork is in place to engage them in small group and ministry settings. Unless this group can be identified, then communication will be limited to those who happen to be present in-person or on-line. In the pre-pandemic setting, most churches registered an average weekly attendance that was about ½ their total number of participants. The exceptions to this are the very small churches where guests are rare and new members non-existent. In those settings everyone pretty much attends everything.
  5. At some point, the pandemic will ease and churches will again expand their programming. When that occurs one important metric will be total weekly participation. That is, how many people attended at least one element of the church’s program in one week? This does not double-dip to count every person every time they attend a church function. It does count every person who attends at least one church function in a week but the person is only counted once with no ‘extra credit’ for attending multiple services.

This process takes a little time and a little organization but is well worth the effort.

The organization requires two elements. Every ministry event must have a roster or roll sheet with people enrolled in the activity. Every person should also be enrolled in the Total Weekly Participation activity.

The time factor has two elements. First, someone must register attendance on the roll sheet for the weekly event. Second, these roll sheets must be compiled and transferred to the Total Weekly Participation Activity.

The old adage “We count people because people count!” will be as true in the New Normal as it was in the Old Normal. The difference may be that we use new metrics for a new day.